RISK ASSESSMENT OF COAL GANGUE SLOPE CONSIDERING MULTIPLE RISK FACTORS
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摘要: 该研究应用可拓理论综合考虑影响矸石边坡稳定的8种风险指标，建立了一套新的矸石边坡稳定性风险评价模型。与传统可拓理论评价模型相比，新模型在可拓距计算方面进行改进，并采用主客观权重相结合的综合分析法对8种风险指标进行权重分析，降低了传统理论算法在边坡稳定性风险评价过程中的系统误差。选取王家岭矸石边坡为案例，经新的边坡稳定性风险评价模型得出，2020年7月7日−2020年8月14日的风险等级变量特征值由原有的1.284上升到2.263，风险等级由低风险上升至中低风险等级，实现了现场矸石山边坡风险的定量评价。通过多个矸石边坡案例应用研究，发现改进的稳定性风险评价模型所得风险等级变量特征可与现有的边坡稳定性评估技术结合使用，实现矿山边坡安全指标与风险指标的综合评价。此外，该方法可以分析现场的实时监测数据，为矿山边坡安全风险评价提供一种客观简便的分析方法，进而有效改变目前矿山边坡工程监测重采集、轻分析的现状。Abstract: The study comprehensively considered 8 risk factors affecting the stability of gangue slope by applying extension theory, and established a new risk assessment model for the stability of gangue slope. Compared with the traditional extension theory-based evaluation model, the new model is improved in the calculation of extension distance, and it uses subjective and objective analysis method to comprehensively analyze 8 risk weight indices, thus it can reduce the systematic error of the traditional theory algorithm in the risk evaluation of slope stability. Taking Wangjialing gangue slope as a case, the risk assessment for slope stability concludes that the characteristic value of risk level increases from the original 1.284 at July 7th, 2020 to 2.263 at August 14th, 2020, and the risk level increases from low risk to medium low risk, thus achieves a quantitative risk assessment of coal gangue slope. Through applications in a number of gangue slope cases, it is concluded that the instability risk analysis based on improved extension theory evaluation model can be used in combination with existing slope stability assessment tools, and realize the comprehensive evaluation of mine slope safety index and risk index. In addition, by analyzing the on-site monitoring data index, the method can provide an objective and effective risk analysis method for mine slope, and improve the current situation that slope monitoring pays more attention to data acquisition than data analysis.
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图 3 降雨强度与风险等级变量特征值关系
Figure 3. The relationship between the daily rainfall and the characteristic value of risk level
表 1 矸石边坡风险指标与风险等级对应表
Table 1 Corresponding table between risk index and risk grade of gangue slope
评价指标 Ⅰ级 Ⅱ级 Ⅲ级 Ⅳ级 内摩擦角/(°) [38,50] [31,38) [27,31) [0,27) 黏聚力/kPa [40,80] [16,40) [8,16) [0,8) 边坡高度/m [0,43) [43,98) [98,144) [144,200] 边坡坡度/(°) [0,33) [33,40) [40,46) [46,60] 不均匀系数 [11,20] [6,11) [4,6) [1,4) 层厚比 [1/2,3/4) [3/4,9/10) [9/10,19/20) [19/20,1] 降雨强度/mm [0,25) [25,50) [50,100) [100,150] 场地温度/(℃) [0,30) [30,50) [50,90) [90,300] 
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表 2 层次分析法判断矩阵
Table 2 Judgment matrix of analytic hierarchy process
风险
指标内摩
擦角黏聚力 高度 坡度 不均匀
系数层厚比 降雨
强度场地
温度内摩擦角 1 1/2 3 2 5 4 2 3 黏聚力 2 1 4 3 6 5 3 4 高度 1/3 1/4 1 1/3 3 2 1/2 1 坡度 1/2 1/3 3 1 4 3 1 2 不均匀系数 1/5 1/6 1/3 1/4 1 1/2 1/4 1/3 层厚比 1/4 1/5 1/2 1/3 2 1 1/3 1/2 降雨强度 1/2 1/3 2 1 4 3 1 2 场地温度 1/3 1/4 1 1/2 3 2 1/2 1
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表 3 两种工况的风险评价指标取值
Table 3 The values of risk index under two working conditions
评价指标 监测日期 2020/7/7 2020/8/14 内摩擦角/(°) 30.54 30.54 黏聚力/kPa 6.48 6.48 边坡高度/m 60 60 边坡坡度/(°) 26.6 26.6 不均匀系数 16 16 层厚比 10/11 10/11 降雨强度/mm 0 41 场地温度/(°) 63.79 51.58
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表 4 各风险指标综合权重
Table 4 The comprehensive weight of each risk index
综合权重 监测日期 2020/7/7 2020/8/14 内摩擦角 0.0994 0.1440 黏聚力 0.1875 0.2717 边坡高度 0.0632 0.0916 边坡坡度 0.1454 0.2107 不均匀系数 0.0602 0.0872 层厚比 0.0180 0.0261 降雨强度 0.3161 0.1230 场地温度 0.1103 0.0458
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表 5 不同工况下关联度与风险等级表
Table 5 Correlation degree and risk level under different working conditions
风险指标 监测日期 2020/7/7 2020/8/14 K1 −0.1291 −0.2636 K2 −0.4993 −0.1844 K3 −0.4153 −0.2195 K4 −0.4766 −0.2784 max(Kj) −0.1291 −0.1844 风险等级 I II j* 1.284 2.263
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