基于乘法定理和AL模型的风速风向联合概率分布的研究及应用

JOINT PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION AND APPLICATION OF WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION BASED ON MULTIPLICATION RULE AND AL MODEL

  • 摘要: 该文开展了风速风向联合概率分布的研究,以大理地区1971年~2017年47年间的风速日值数据资料为例,选用乘法定理和AL模型两种方法建立该地区风速风向联合概率分布。首先,对各风向以及全风向风速数据的最优概率分布进行研究;其次,分别基于谐波函数和混合von Mises分布对风向的概率密度进行拟合,并进一步基于乘法定理和Angular-Linear (AL)模型推导得出了风速风向联合概率密度函数;最后,对大理地区50年重现期内的极值风速进行预测。研究结果表明:Gumbel分布能更好地描述大理地区的风速分布规律,通过AL模型获得的风速风向联合概率密度函数明显优于基于乘法定理得到的联合概率密度函数;而忽略风向的影响将明显高估大理地区的极值风速。

     

    Abstract: Based on the daily wind speed data recorded during 1971-2017 in Dali, China, the multiplication rule and angular-linear (AL) model are employed to construct the joint probability density function (JPDF) of wind speed and direction. Firstly, the optimal probability distribution of wind speed in all directions is determined by comparing the regression results of different distributions. Secondly, the harmonic function and the finite mixture of von Mises distribution are applied to describe the probability density function of wind direction. Furthermore, based on multiplication rules and continuous AL model, two different JPDFs of wind speed and direction are constructed. Finally, the extreme wind speed associated with 50-year return period is calculated for Dali using the established JPDF. The analysis results show that the Gumbel model is better to describe the distribution of wind speed in Dali. The AL model can provide a better fit for wind speed and direction than the approach based on multiplication rule and harmonic function. More importantly, the extreme wind speed corresponding to the 50-year return period in Dali could be significantly overestimated when the effect of wind direction is neglected.

     

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