DYNAMIC BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF DISPLACEMENT PARAMETERS OF THIN-WALLED CURVED BOX BASED ON NOVOZHILOV THEORY

The finite curved strip governing equation of thin-walled curved box is deduced based on Novozhilov theory. Dynamic Bayesian error function of displacement parameters of thin-walled curved box is established for the first time. The corresponding formulas of dynamic Bayesian expectation and variance are derived. After the method of automatic search of step length is put forward, the dynamic estimation formulas are obtained by adapting conjugate gradient method, and the computing steps of dynamic Bayesian estimation are presented. Through concrete analysis of classic examples, a criterion of judging the precision of the known information summarized and some other important conclusions about dynamic Bayesian estimation of displacement parameters of thin-walled curved box are drawn.