RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF MAXIMUM SPEED LIMIT FOR EXPRESSWAY OPERATION AGAINST DISASTROUS EVENTS

To solve the problems in the current deterministic method for determining a maximum speed limit for expressway operation against disastrous events, a reliability method was presented. The dynamic analysis was made for vehicle traveling at a horizontal curve of expressway, and respective maximum allowable speeds were deduced for vehicle in horizontal circular motion without sliding and that in emergency stopping without hitting an obstacle in the visual range. Based on Reliability engineering, the reliability of a maximum speed limit was defined. With safety of horizontal circular motion and emergency stopping as constraints, the performance function of the maximum speed limit was established and the model for calculation of its reliability and reliable indicator were deduced. For solution of the reliability model, Monte Carlo method was recommended due to multi-parameter high complexity of the non-linear performance function. With a self-developed program, a case study was conducted to illustrate the reliability analysis of the maximum speed limit for expressway safety management under a detrimental event. The reliability method for determining a maximum speed limit of expressway operation is helpful for improving traffic safety.