EVOLUTION AND DEVELOPMENT OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PREDICTION IN CHINA

The theory, technology and practice of earthquake disaster prediction have a history of 40 years in China. Because of the increasing awareness of the government, society and public on disaster prevention and mitigation, research in this area has been widely expanded and has grown into one of the more important topics in the field of earthquake engineering. We present an account of its evolution, development, and application from the viewpoints of time node dimensions and government, society, and public applications. Generally speaking, the development of earthquake damage prediction has progressed according to the following sequence: in the initial stage, it was only aimed at several types of buildings (structures) in earthquake-prone areas to discover the weaknesses in different types of structures, and to provide the basis for disaster reduction and structural retrofit; then, the focus shifted to the seismic capacity and possible damage to different structures in the working area with the objective of developing guidelines for the planning of cities and regions, the disaster prevention preparation and emergency assessment in the event of an earthquake; in the past decade, the insurance industry has promoted mass earthquake disaster prediction and disaster risk assessment to determine appropriate insurance rates and odds ratios; at present, with the input and guidance of the government and the classified promotion of disaster risk assessment and governance of the whole society, earthquake disaster prediction has encountered a new development opportunity. Throughout the development of these different stages, the theory and methods of earthquake disaster prediction have been gradually improved, deepened and extended. By summarizing the development of earthquake disaster prediction, we aim to obtain feedback from and promote discussions with practitioners in this industry.