杨杰, 马萌璠, 王旭. 随机结构动力可靠度计算的条件概率方法[J]. 工程力学, 2018, 35(S1): 17-21. DOI: 10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2017.05.S030
引用本文: 杨杰, 马萌璠, 王旭. 随机结构动力可靠度计算的条件概率方法[J]. 工程力学, 2018, 35(S1): 17-21. DOI: 10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2017.05.S030
YANG Jie, MA Meng-fan, WANG Xu. Conditional probability method for dynamic reliability calculation of random structures[J]. Engineering Mechanics, 2018, 35(S1): 17-21. DOI: 10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2017.05.S030
Citation: YANG Jie, MA Meng-fan, WANG Xu. Conditional probability method for dynamic reliability calculation of random structures[J]. Engineering Mechanics, 2018, 35(S1): 17-21. DOI: 10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2017.05.S030

随机结构动力可靠度计算的条件概率方法

Conditional probability method for dynamic reliability calculation of random structures

  • 摘要: 针对复合随机可靠度问题,基于动力响应跨越过程的Markov假设基础上,建立了条件概率求解的两种方法:一是基于泰勒展开法推导了随机结构动力可靠度计算的2阶近似表达式;二是基于数理统计概念建立了基于Kriging模型的数值抽样法。其中,Kriging抽样法通过Kriging插值模型来拟合动力可靠度与结构随机参数间的非线性关系,因此可以直接利用有限元结果分析随机结构参数对动力可靠度的影响,避免了理论推导的繁琐和困难。数值算例结果表明,基于Kriging模型的数值抽样法不仅对变异系数大小不敏感,在计算精度和计算效率方面也更具优势。

     

    Abstract: Based on Markov hypothesis of a dynamic response spanning process, two kinds of conditional probabilistic solutions are established for compound random reliability problems. One is the second order Taylor expansion expressions deduced for the dynamic reliability calculation of a stochastic structure. Another is a numerical sampling method based on Kriging model established by the concept of mathematical statistics. Among them, the sampling method by Kriging interpolation model fits the nonlinear relationship between dynamic reliability and structural random parameters. Therefore, the influence of random structural parameters on dynamic reliability can be analyzed directly by using the finite element method, which avoids the cumbersome and difficult problem of theoretical deduction. The numerical results show that the Kriging sampling method is not only insensitive to the size of the coefficient of variation, but also has the advantages of accuracy and computational efficiency.

     

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