羡丽娜, 何政, 张延泰. 考虑年均倒塌概率的结构倒塌安全储备可接受值[J]. 工程力学, 2017, 34(4): 88-100. DOI: 10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2015.09.0791
引用本文: 羡丽娜, 何政, 张延泰. 考虑年均倒塌概率的结构倒塌安全储备可接受值[J]. 工程力学, 2017, 34(4): 88-100. DOI: 10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2015.09.0791
XIAN Li-na, HE Zheng, ZHANG Yan-tai. ACCEPTABLE STRUCTURAL COLLAPSE SAFETY MARGIN RATIOS BASED ON ANNUAL COLLAPSE PROBABILITY[J]. Engineering Mechanics, 2017, 34(4): 88-100. DOI: 10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2015.09.0791
Citation: XIAN Li-na, HE Zheng, ZHANG Yan-tai. ACCEPTABLE STRUCTURAL COLLAPSE SAFETY MARGIN RATIOS BASED ON ANNUAL COLLAPSE PROBABILITY[J]. Engineering Mechanics, 2017, 34(4): 88-100. DOI: 10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2015.09.0791

考虑年均倒塌概率的结构倒塌安全储备可接受值

ACCEPTABLE STRUCTURAL COLLAPSE SAFETY MARGIN RATIOS BASED ON ANNUAL COLLAPSE PROBABILITY

  • 摘要: 推导出结构年均倒塌概率与结构倒塌安全储备之间的关系,并提出依据年均倒塌概率可接受值计算可接受倒塌安全储备系数CMR的方法。利用全概率理论,将倒塌易损性与地震危险性进行耦合,得到结构年均倒塌概率,采用中值倒塌地震强度建立年均倒塌概率与结构倒塌安全储备系数CMR的关系。结合大震倒塌概率可接受值确定年均倒塌概率可接受值,进而计算结构可接受倒塌安全储备系数CMR。结合我国抗震规范规定的加速度反应谱建立CMR谱,给出了乙类、丙类结构在不同设防烈度下的可接受年均倒塌概率值以及可接受CMR值。研究表明:结构可接受年均倒塌风险越低,结构的倒塌安全储备可接受值越大,并呈现幂函数的数学关系,而可接受年均倒塌概率又与大震强度、地震危险性以及总倒塌不确定性有关。依据我国抗震设计规范背景建议的特定可接受年均倒塌概率下的可接受CMR谱,可以反映不同周期区间结构随总倒塌不确定性变化的规律,可用于结构倒塌安全储备的快速评估。基于CECS392建议的可接受大震倒塌概率计算得到乙类建筑的可接受年均倒塌概率远小于丙类建筑,均随着设防烈度的提高而下降,相应的CMR可接受值则呈现增加趋势。

     

    Abstract: The relationship between average annual collapse probability and collapse margin of structures is derived and a method used to determine acceptable collapse margin ratio (CMR) with certain annual collapse probability is then proposed. Annual collapse probability is obtained through the combination of collapse vulnerability analysis with seismic hazard analysis under the framework of total probability theory. Further, the relation between annual collapse probability and CMR is established by using the median of collapse earthquake intensity. Then, acceptable CMRs are determined based on the lower limit of annual collapse probability which comes from the collapse probability corresponding to a rare earthquake. With the design acceleration response spectrum specified in Chinese seismic design code, a so-called CMR spectrum is developed and some annual collapse probability limits and corresponding acceptable CMRs are proposed for buildings with seismic precautionary category (SPC) of B and C for several seismic fortification intensities (SFI). The investigation indicates that acceptable CMRs tend to increase as acceptable annual collapse probability decreases, following a mathematical power function relation between each other. Acceptable annual collapse probability is associated with rare-level earthquake intensity, seismic hazard and global collapse uncertainty. In accordance with Chinese aseismic design background, the CMR spectra developed with an acceptable annual collapse probability can reflect the variation of acceptable CMRs with different global uncertainties. Theoretically, these spectrums can be applied for a quick assessment for structures having different fundamental vibration periods. On the basis of acceptable collapse probabilities under a rare earthquake as suggested in CECS 392 guideline, the acceptable annual collapse probabilities for buildings with SPC of B are far below than those of C. And, the acceptable CMRs for all buildings exhibit a tendency to increase as seismic fortification intensity increases.

     

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