基于Novozhilov理论薄壁弯箱位移参数的动态Bayes估计

DYNAMIC BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF DISPLACEMENT PARAMETERS OF THIN-WALLED CURVED BOX BASED ON NOVOZHILOV THEORY

  • 摘要: 基于Novozhilov理论推导了薄壁弯箱结构的有限曲条控制方程,并首次建立了薄壁弯箱位移参数的动态Bayes误差函数,推导了参数的动态Bayes均值和方差表达式,提出步长的一维自动搜索方案后,并结合共轭梯度法推导了薄壁弯箱位移参数的动态Bayes估计公式,同时给出了具体计算步骤。通过算例分析,总结了薄壁弯箱位移参数先验信息准确性判定方法及位移参数动态Bayes估计的其它重要结论。

     

    Abstract: The finite curved strip governing equation of thin-walled curved box is deduced based on Novozhilov theory. Dynamic Bayesian error function of displacement parameters of thin-walled curved box is established for the first time. The corresponding formulas of dynamic Bayesian expectation and variance are derived. After the method of automatic search of step length is put forward, the dynamic estimation formulas are obtained by adapting conjugate gradient method, and the computing steps of dynamic Bayesian estimation are presented. Through concrete analysis of classic examples, a criterion of judging the precision of the known information summarized and some other important conclusions about dynamic Bayesian estimation of displacement parameters of thin-walled curved box are drawn.

     

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