Abstract: This paper is aimed to study the forecast method for shaft wall rupture. Based on the analysis of shaft in soil and the friction distribution between soil and shaft, shaft rupture mechanism is analyzed and the stress distribution in the dangerous section in shaft is found. The forecast method on shaft rupture time is established using the strength criterion and the one-to-one correspondence relation between the groundwater level around shaft and the stress value at dangerous point in shaft. The result shows that the rupture time of shaft can be forecasted according to the groundwater level and the curve of the temperature value in every month. An example is provided to verify the present theory.