钢筋截面积模糊随机时变概率模型

FUZZY RANDOM TIME-VARIANT PROBABILITY MODEL OF REINFORCEMENT SECTIONAL AREA

  • 摘要: 当前信息的有限性和未来信息的未确知性,使得钢筋截面积时变概率模型存在不确定性。将钢筋混凝土桥梁中钢筋锈蚀影响因素的不确定性归结为模糊性和随机性,针对氯离子环境下均匀锈蚀和局部锈蚀两种状态,采用Mont Carlo区间数值模拟技术,分析了锈蚀初始时间模糊概率特征,建立了钢筋截面积均值和标准差关于服役时间和阈值的函数,以局部锈蚀为例分析了锈坑深度不同时刻截口模糊概率特征,对比了不同锈蚀形态下截面积均值和标准差的异同。结果表明:锈蚀各影响因素不确定性对钢筋截面积模型影响显著,局部锈蚀下截面积退化的离散性更强,混凝土桥梁时变可靠性研究过程采用局部环境下锈蚀模型为宜。

     

    Abstract: The uncertainty in the time-variant probability model of a reinforcement sectional area is generated by the limited current information and unknown future condition. The uncertainty of influencing factors on reinforcement corrosion under the chloride ion environment is summed up fuzziness and randomness in the reinforced concrete bridges. The Mont Carlo interval numerical simulation technology is incorporated, and both the uniform and local corrosion states are considered. The fuzzy probabilistic characteristic of corrosion initiation time is analyzed. The sectional area mean and standard deviation functions including time and threshold values are established. The fuzzy probabilistic characteristic of corrosion pit depth at the different time under local corrosion environment is analyzed. The sectional area means and standard deviations under two corrosion states are compared, respectively. The results show that the effect of uncertainty of influencing factors of corrosion on the reinforcement sectional area model is significant. The discreteness of sectional area degradation under local corrosion is remarkable. Therefore, the sectional area model under local corrosion is suitable for the time-variant reliability analysis of a concrete bridge.

     

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