水泥混凝土路面的工后可靠度及其计算方法

THE POST CONSTRUCTION RELIABLITY OF CEMENT CONCRETE PAVEMENT AND ITS CALCULATON METHOD

  • 摘要: 针对当前水泥混凝土路面可靠度设计方法存在的问题,提出了工后可靠度的概念及其思想,以贝叶斯定理为基础推导了水泥混凝土路面工后可靠度的计算公式,并通过算例示范了工后可靠度的计算方法。工后可靠度对道路管理部门制定养护经费计划和养护对策有重要的意义。对于更有实用意义的路面管理系统的构建,进一步提出了动态可靠度的概念,以及基于贝叶斯网络的路面动态可靠度计算方法,对路面管理系统的开发具有参考 意义。

     

    Abstract: Based on analysis of the defects of reliability design methods in the current design specifications for cement concrete pavement, the concept of post construction reliability (short for PCR) was presented and defined. The formulas for the calculation of PCR were deduced with Bayesian Method. A case study was illustrated on how to calculate PCR with the formulas. PCR is significant for highway management departments to make plans on maintenance. For the construction of a more significant highway management system, the concept of dynamic reliability was further presented and its calculation framework based on Bayesian Network was established.

     

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