基于改进LHS方法的预应力混凝土结构长期性能概率分析

LONG-TERM PERFORMANCE PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF PC STRUCTURE BASED ON IMPROVED LHS METHOD

  • 摘要: 针对混凝土收缩徐变模型离散性较大的特点,改进拉丁超立方抽样方法的样本点生成策略。改进策略在样本均值误差为零的限制条件下,避免样本点中出现小于0的现象,符合物理意义。收缩应变的简单算例表明:采用改进生成策略后的计算结果与改进前相比,二者均值基本一致,改进后的标准差略有降低。对超长预应力混凝土多层框架结构进行概率分析,考察10000d时间内,季节性温差作用下结构长轴方向端柱顶部位移和结构中部楼板应力的变化趋势。结果表明:改进样本点生成策略可成功应用于大型复杂结构长期性能的概率分析。

     

    Abstract: The sample point generation strategy used in Latin Hypercube Sampling Monte-Carlo method is improved in according with the large variability of a concrete shrinkage and creep model. The improved strategy is developed under an unbiased mean value restriction; it can avoid negative values of random variables, so as to conform to the physical meaning. A simple example of shrinkage strain calculation shows that the improved strategy has an identical mean value and a slightly decreased standard deviation comparing to unimproved one. The probabilistic analysis is performed for a super long prestressed concrete frame structure; the changes of side column displacements and slab stresses in 10000 days are studied. The results prove that the improved sampling strategy can be applied successfully in the long-term performance probabilistic analysis for large and complex structures.

     

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