基于“风险源-承灾体-减灾力”的城市系统抗灾韧性评估方法

URBAN SYSTEM DISASTER RESILIENCE ASSESSMENT METHOD BASED ON THE "RISK SOURCE-RISK EXPOSURE-MITIGATION FORCE" URBAN SAFETY THEORY

  • 摘要: 自然灾害对于城市可持续发展造成了严重威胁,定量评估灾害作用下城市系统韧性是建设韧性城市的前提。该研究基于城市安全风险源-承灾体-减灾力理论,以灾害情景作为风险源,以城市系统作为承灾体,将承灾体抽象为由人口、公共服务设施和基础设施组成的三层耦联网络,在此基础上融入减灾力模型,模拟灾害情景下政府应急指挥和恢复能力,从城市系统供给和需求差异的角度建立系统韧性评价指标,提出城市系统抗灾韧性评估方法。该研究以唐山市医疗系统为例,评估了唐山Ms7.8 级地震作用下城市医疗系统的抗灾韧性,并对比了减灾力对系统韧性的影响。结果表明:该方法能够有效模拟承灾体间供给-需求的相互作用,定量评估城市系统抗灾韧性和应急恢复策略的有效性。该研究系统地将风险源、承灾体的供给-需求和政府减灾能力纳入同一评估体系中,为城市系统韧性评估提供了全新的理论方法,将有效促进城市系统韧性和基层应急管理能力。

     

    Abstract: Natural Disasters pose significant threats to urban sustainable development. Quantitative assessment of urban system resilience is essential for building disaster-resilient cities. This study, based on the“risk source-exposure-risk mitigation factor”theory of urban safety, conceptualizes urban systems as a three-layer coupled network comprising population, public service facilities and infrastructures, with disaster scenarios acting as external risk sources. A disaster mitigation model is established to simulate government emergency response and recovery capacity under disaster scenarios. From the perspective of urban system supply-demand imbalances within the urban system, a quantitative resilience indicator is developed, and a method for assessing urban system resilience is proposed. This study takes the medical system of Tangshan City as an example to evaluate the disaster resilience of the urban medical system under the impact of the Tangshan Ms7.8 earthquake, and compares the impact of disaster mitigation capabilities on system resilience. The results demonstrate that this method can effectively simulate the supply-demand interaction between disaster-bearing bodies, and quantitatively evaluate the disaster resilience of urban systems and the effectiveness of emergency recovery strategies. This study systematically integrates risk sources, the supply-demand of disaster-bearing bodies, and government disaster mitigation capabilities into the same evaluation framework, providing a new theoretical method for urban system resilience evaluation, which will effectively increase urban system resilience and grassroots emergency management capabilities.

     

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