基于可解释机器学习的不锈钢圆方混合管节点应力集中系数预测

PREDICTION OF STRESS CONCENTRATION FACTORS OF STAINLESS STEEL ROUND SQUARE MIXECD TUBE JOINTS BASED ON INTERPRETABLE MACHINE LEARNING

  • 摘要: 不锈钢圆方混合管在循环荷载下可能发生疲劳破坏。提出一种预测精度高并可解释机理的“应力集中系数预测模型”,从而定量评价不锈钢圆方混合管节点的抗疲劳性能。创建了包含615个不锈钢管节点(T型、Y型、X型和K型节点)的数据库,并确定关键输入特征,继而选取九种典型回归算法建立模型,并将每种模型的预测值和试验值进行比较,从而获得优选应力集中系数的预测模型。在此基础上,使用Shapley方法从全局、个体和特征依赖性进行解释。结果表明:XGBoost模型测试集与训练集的预测精度均大于0.98,特征选取有效;XGBoost模型在预测圆方混合管不锈钢节点SCF时具有较高的预测精度和泛化能力;在不锈钢混合管节点SCF预测公式中应考虑是否搭接和搭接率的影响,截面尺寸特征之间存在高度依赖性;建立的人机交互GUI模块可实现不锈钢圆方混合管节点应力集中系数的精准预测。

     

    Abstract: The fatigue failure of stainless steel round square mixed tubes may occur under cyclic load. A " prediction model of stress concentration factor" with high prediction accuracy and explanation mechanism was proposed to quantitatively evaluate the fatigue resistance of stainless steel round square mixed tube joints. A database of 487 stainless steel tube joints (T-, Y-, X- and K-joints) was created and key input characteristics were identified. Then, nine typical regression algorithms were selected to establish the model, and the predicted values of each model were compared with the test values, so as to obtain the optimal prediction model of stress concentration factor. On this basis, Shapley method was used to explain the global, individual and feature dependencies. The results showed that the prediction accuracies of both test set and training set of XGBoost model were greater than 0.98, and the feature selection was effective. The XGBoost model had high prediction accuracy and generalization ability when predicting the SCF of stainless steel round square mixed tube joints. The influence of overlap and overlap rate should be considered in SCF prediction formula and there was a high dependence between the dimensional features of the section. The human-computer interactive GUI module can accurately predict the stress concentration coefficient of stainless steel round square mixed tube joints.

     

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