基于城市安全“风险源-承灾体-减灾力”理论的2024年日本能登半岛地震剖析

ANALYSIS OF THE 2024 NOTO PENINSULA, JAPAN EARTHQUAKE BASED ON THE "RISK SOURCE-RISK EXPOSURE-MITIGATION FORCE" URBAN SAFETY THEORY

  • 摘要: 由于风险源、承灾体和减灾力的相互作用,灾害影响表现出高度复杂性、不确定性和系统性特征,传统理论难以系统剖析其成灾过程和致灾机理。本文基于城市安全“风险源-承灾体-减灾力”理论,以日本能登半岛7.5级地震为例,深入剖析了地震灾害的形成过程和影响机理,揭示了地震引发多重灾害的联动效应、脆弱性和减灾力不足的问题。研究发现,此次地震震级高、震源浅、余震多、破坏力大,复杂的地质地貌特征导致次生灾害严重。老旧建筑在地震中表现出极大脆弱性,导致大量人员伤亡。人口老龄化问题加剧了灾害影响,老年人口的房屋抗震能力提升及低自救能力需要特别关注。交通和通信基础设施的破坏严重影响了救援和物资调配。尽管日本的应急响应体系较为完善,但在极端灾害面前仍显不足。未来应在城市规划中统筹考虑多灾种防御,优化城市功能区布局,加强基础设施的冗余设计和抗灾能力。同时,应注意强化防灾减灾教育,完善应急响应体系,加强多部门协同,提升救援效率和灾后恢复速度。

     

    Abstract: Due to the interactions among risk sources, risk exposures and mitigation forces, the effects of disasters exhibit highly complex, uncertain and systematic characteristics, and it is difficult for traditional theories to systematically analyze their processes and mechanisms of catastrophe. Based on the "risk source-risk exposure-mitigation force" urban safety theory, this study uses the case of the M7.5 Noto Peninsula, Japan earthquake, to thoroughly analyze the formation process and impact mechanisms of earthquake disasters. It reveals the cascading effects of multiple disasters triggered by earthquakes, highlighting issues of vulnerability and insufficient resilience. The research finds that the high magnitude, shallow focal depth, numerous aftershocks, and complex geological features contributed to severe secondary disasters. Aging buildings were extremely vulnerable during the earthquake, which led to many casualties. The aging population exacerbated disaster impacts, underscoring the need to improve senior citizens' ability to self-rescue and the seismic resistance of senior housing. Rescue efforts and resource allocation were significantly impacted by the destruction of the communication and transportation infrastructure. Despite Japan's relatively advanced emergency response system, shortcomings are still noticeable in times of extreme catastrophe. Future research should enhance infrastructure redundancy and disaster resilience, optimize the layout of urban functional zones, and incorporate multi-hazard defenses into urban planning. Further critical steps forward include strengthening emergency response systems, promoting multi-agency coordination, improving rescue effectiveness, and hastening post-disaster recovery.

     

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