基于层次贝叶斯推断的高强钢丝腐蚀疲劳寿命预测

PREDICTION OF CORROSION FATIGUE LIFE OF HIGH-STRENGTH STEEL WIRE USING HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN INFERENCE

  • 摘要: 高强钢丝的腐蚀和疲劳过程均具有强随机性,难以准确预测其腐蚀疲劳寿命,为量化高强钢丝腐蚀疲劳寿命经验模型中参数的不确定性,该文提出了基于经典和层次贝叶斯推断的高强钢丝腐蚀疲劳寿命预测方法。分别采用经典和层次贝叶斯理论,推断高强钢丝腐蚀疲劳寿命经验模型中的参数,量化参数的不确定性,进而得到参数的后验分布;利用参数后验分布,通过传递参数的不确定性得到不同生存概率的腐蚀疲劳寿命(p-C-S-N)曲面,实现高强钢丝腐蚀疲劳寿命的预测;采用试验数据验证了两种预测方法的有效性,并对比分析了两种预测结果。研究结果表明:经典和层次贝叶斯推断都能准确预测高强钢丝的腐蚀疲劳寿命,生存概率p=50%时,两种方法的预测结果基本一致;生存概率p=2.5%和97.5%时,层次贝叶斯的预测结果区间大于经典贝叶斯,层次贝叶斯预测得到的腐蚀疲劳寿命更保守;层次贝叶斯方法更具一般性,经典贝叶斯是层次贝叶斯的一种特殊情况。

     

    Abstract: The corrosion and fatigue processes of high-strength steel wire exhibit strong randomness, making it difficult to accurately predict their corrosion fatigue life. To quantify the uncertainty of parameters in the empirical model of high-strength steel wire corrosion fatigue life, two corrosion fatigue life prediction methods using classical and hierarchical Bayesian inference are proposed in this study. Firstly, the classical and hierarchical Bayesian methods are adopted to infer the parameters in the empirical model of the corrosion fatigue life of high-strength steel wire, quantifying the uncertainty of parameters, and obtaining the posterior distribution of parameters. Then, using the posterior distribution of parameters, the probabilistic corrosion fatigue life (p-C-S-N) surfaces under different survival probability are obtained by propagating the uncertainty of parameters, achieving the prediction of the corrosion fatigue life of high-strength steel wire. Finally, experimental data was employed to verify the effectiveness of the two prediction methods, and a comparative analysis of the two prediction results was conducted. The research results show that both classical and hierarchical Bayesian inference can accurately predict the corrosion fatigue life of high-strength steel wire. When the survival probability is p=50%, the prediction results of the two methods are basically consistent. When the survival probabilities are p=2.5% and 97.5%, the prediction interval of hierarchical Bayesian is greater than that of classical Bayesian, and the corrosion fatigue life predicted by hierarchical Bayesian is more conservative. The hierarchical Bayesian method is more general, and classical Bayesian method is a special case of hierarchical Bayesian method.

     

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