考虑余震影响的RC框架结构概率地震风险分析

SEISMIC RISK ANALYSIS FOR REINFORCED CONCRETE FRAME BUILDINGS CONSIDERING THE EFFECT OF AFTERSHOCK

  • 摘要: 余震对结构的地震风险水平具有显著影响。为了解决结构的主余震风险评估问题,该文提出了一种考虑余震影响的地震风险分析方法。该方法将主余震风险分析拆分为两个主要部分:主余震易损性分析和主余震危险性分析。在易损性分析中,以基于位移的易损性函数作为基本公式建立主震易损性函数和余震易损性函数,通过全概率定理将二者相结合,得到基于向量式强度参数的主余震易损性函数;在危险性分析中,利用Copula函数构造余震强度参数的条件概率分布,基于一种改进的“间接式”危险性分析方法将条件概率分布与主震危险性曲线结合,获得同时考虑主震和余震的地震危险性函数;将主余震易损性函数和主余震危险性函数进行卷积,并将传统风险积分公式拓展至二元积分域,得到考虑余震影响的需求风险函数。为验证该文方法的可行性,以一栋按照我国规范设计的钢筋混凝土框架结构作为研究对象,以50年作为结构的服役期,探讨了该结构在服役期内地震风险水平的变化,结果表明:在相同服役时间条件下,主余震序列作用下结构的年均需求风险大致是单一主震作用下需求风险的2倍。随着结构服役时间增加,主震和主余震序列作用下结构达到各个极限状态的风险显著提高。当结构服役时间达到40年时,主余震序列作用下结构的倒塌风险已增长至新建结构主震倒塌风险的69倍,说明余震对结构风险水平的影响不可忽视。

     

    Abstract: Aftershock has a significant influence on the seismic risk of engineering structures. To evaluate the seismic risk subjected to mainshock-aftershock scenario, this study develops a framework for seismic risk estimation considering the contribution of aftershock. The proposed framework divided the risk estimation into two parts, namely the mainshock-aftershock fragility analysis and mainshock-aftershock hazard analysis. For the fragility assessment, the total probability theorem is adopted to couple the mainshock- and aftershock- fragility functions, which are developed upon the displacement-based fragility formula. For the seismic hazard analysis, the copula technique is used to generate the conditional distribution of aftershock intensity. Based on an improved “indirect approach”, a vector valued mainshock-aftershock hazard function is obtained in conjunction with the mainshock hazard curve and the obtained conditional probability. The seismic risk function is developed by combining the fragility and hazard functions. To illustrate the framework proposed, a seismic-designed RC frame building is employed as the case structure. The seismic risks are discussed for the case structure during its service life. Analysis results show that the seismic risk under mainshock-aftershock sequence is approximately twice as that under mainshock only. The seismic risk for all limit states raises with the increasing of the service time. When the service time is 40 years, the collapse risk under mainshock-aftershock sequence reaches to 69 times of the initial structure under mainshock only. The effect of the aftershock cannot be ignored in the structural seismic risk assessment of buildings.

     

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