Abstract:
Climate change has now achieved consensus among governments and non-governmental organizations worldwide. The elevation of temperatures in sea surface is projected to enhance the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones, which predominantly derive their energy from sea surface temperatures, leading to an increase in extreme wind speeds of typhoons associated with climate change. In this study, ten long-span suspension bridges located in major cities along China's southeastern coast and in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, which are notably impacted by typhoons, are introduced to analyze the randomness of the critical flutter wind speed determined through full-bridge aeroelastic wind tunnel tests. A probabilistic distribution model accounting for the randomness of the critical flutter wind speed is established. Based on the permissible stress method, proposed is the exceedance probability method and, a climate change model, a probabilistic distribution model for the flutter check wind speed that is stochastic and time-variant. Developed is a limit state function for flutter reliability analysis and the probabilistic assessment of suspension bridge. A method is introduced for calculating the flutter failure probability of suspension bridges, based on the Monte Carlo numerical simulation technique. The flutter failure probabilities and reliability indices of these ten long-span suspension bridges and their implications in the context of climate change are calculated and discussed. The study results indicate that considering the effects of typhoons due to climate change, the flutter failure probability decreases by 1 to 3 orders of magnitude; and that the flutter failure probability varies by 4 to 60 times depending on different climate change pathways.