基于双对数正态分布的电瓷型电气设备地震易损性研究

DOUBLE LOGARITHMIC DISTRIBUTION BASED SEISMIC FRAGILITY ANALYSIS OF PORCELAIN ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT

  • 摘要: 总结了110 kV和220 kV典型电气设备的地震易损性曲线研究成果,考虑不同研究成果的离散性,基于双对数正态分布给出了抗震能力中值、随机性和不确定性建议值。进一步开展220 kV变电站系统的抗震性能分析,定量评价了变电站的功能性。研究结果表明:双对数正态分布可以较好地反映电气设备地震易损性的离散性,尤其是模型、方法等原因导致的不确定性。变电站系统的抗震能力低于电气设备的抗震能力,设计中应采取措施提高变电站的冗余性。变电站系统抗震性能与电气设备抗震能力中值正相关,与随机性和不确定性呈负相关。

     

    Abstract: Existing data on fragility functions of the 110 kV and 220 kV equipment are summarized and expressed by double logarithmic model to reflect the significant discreteness between different studies. The median capacities, randomness, and uncertainties of major 110 kV and 220 kV equipment are determined. Based on these parameters, the seismic performance, in particularly, the system functionality, of a 220 kV substation is assessed. The double logarithmic model is capable of reflecting the discreteness of the seismic fragilities of equipment in different studies, especially the uncertainties caused by modelling and analysis methods. The substation is found to be more vulnerable to earthquakes compared with individual pieces of equipment, indicating that the redundancy considered in current design should be improved. The substation’s median capacities are positively related to component median capacities, negatively related to component randomness and uncertainties.

     

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