严重事故下核电厂安全壳结构概率性能评价

PROBABILISTIC PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF NUCLEAR CONTAINMENT STRUCTURE SUBJECTED TO SEVERE ACCIDENTS

  • 摘要: 安全壳结构在严重事故下概率安全性能是核电厂结构概率安全评价中关注的重点。该文基于安全壳三维精细化有限元模型,评估了安全壳结构在严重事故工况下的概率安全性能。为了实现非线性有限元分析自动化运行,开发了Python和Matlab脚本。为量化评估统计不确定性对易损性参数的影响,分别采用统计推断法和bootstrap方法对安全壳结构易损性参数的置信区间进行估计。此外,利用 bootstrap法量化分析了安全壳结构的可靠度和总失效概率的统计特性。采用中值法和置信法评估了安全壳结构的安全裕度。研究表明:统计推断法和bootstrap法对易损性参数p_\rmm的置信区间估计几乎相同,对于易损性参数\beta _\rmS,两种方法估计的置信区间差别较大,统计推断法往往会高估易损性参数\beta _\rmS的置信区间。内压易损性参数的统计不确定性对可靠指标和总失效概率的影响不大,并且易损性函数参数的统计不确定性对总失效概率的影响大于对可靠指标的影响。中值法计算的安全裕度与置信水平为95%的置信安全裕度相差不大。总体来看,该文研究的安全壳可以满足严重事故下概率性能目标要求,同时也能满足安全裕度不小于2.5的要求。

     

    Abstract: Probabilistic safety performance of nuclear containment structure subjected to severe accident conditions is the focus of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plant structures. Based on detailed three-dimensional finite element model of the nuclear containment structure, probabilistic safety performance of nuclear containment structure under severe accident conditions is evaluated in this study. To realize the automatic running of nonlinear finite element analysis, Python and Matlab scripts are developed. To quantitatively evaluate the effect of statistical uncertainty on the fragility function parameters, statistical inference and bootstrap method are used to estimate the confidence interval of the fragility function parameters. Moreover, statistical characteristics of reliability index and total failure probability of the nuclear containment structure are quantitatively analyzed by bootstrap method. Finally, median value and confidence interval method are used to evaluate the safety margin of the nuclear containment structure. Results indicate that confidence interval of fragility function parameter,p_\rmm, estimated by statistical inference and bootstrap method are almost the same. As for confidence interval of fragility function parameter \beta _\rmS, statistical inference method tends to overestimate the confidence interval of fragility function parameter \beta _\rmS. Statistical uncertainty of fragility function parameters has negligible influence on reliability index and total failure probability, and the influence of the statistical uncertainty of the fragility function parameters on total failure probability is greater than that of reliability index. There is small difference between the safety margin calculated by median value method and the safety margin with 95% confidence level calculated by confidence interval method. In general, nuclear containment structure used in this study meets the requirements of probabilistic performance under severe accident conditions, and it also meets the requirements of safety margin of no less than 2.5.

     

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