社区地震安全韧性评估系统及应用示范

AN EVALUATION SYSTEM FOR COMMUNITY SEISMIC RESILIENCE AND ITS APPLICATION IN A TYPICAL COMMUNITY

  • 摘要: 韧性是指系统在受到外界扰动时抵抗、调整、恢复和适应的能力。北京历史上多次发生重大地震灾害,地震风险非常严峻。提升地震安全(Safety)韧性(Resilience)是北京市防灾减灾工作的重点之一。目前虽然对地震韧性问题已有诸多研究,但是尚缺少可以实操的区域地震韧性评价方法和工具。在北京市地震局的支持下,清华大学团队提出了可操作的社区韧性定量评价方法,并以一个典型社区为研究对象,开展了地震安全韧性评估工作,并开发了相应的系统平台。研究内容主要包括:社区韧性评估体系;建筑系统韧性评估;交通系统韧性评估;生命线系统韧性评估;非实体系统韧性评估;并在此基础上开发了韧性评估系统应用示范软件平台。评估结果表明:该社区整体韧性水平有待提升。其中:交通系统满足需求的能力较其他系统高;建筑系统韧性水平不足,但在不同地震强度下满足需求的能力较为稳定;生命线系统在地震强度较低时韧性水平较高,地震强度较高时韧性水平较低,满足需求的能力与地震强度密切相关。针对上述结果,研究针对建筑系统提出了若干韧性提升措施并进行了讨论。该研究定量评估了包含多个子系统的典型社区地震安全韧性水平,成果可以作为示范为未来北京市范围内的推广应用提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Resilience is defined as the capacity of a system to resist, adjust, recover and adapt when suffering an external disturbance. Beijing is confronting a serious earthquake risk because severe earthquake disasters have occurred many times in Beijing’s history. Thus, the seismic safety and resilience is the crux of the disaster prevention and mitigation of Beijing. Although many studies have been conducted on the earthquake resilience, operational evaluation methods and tools for regional seismic resilience are still absent. Supported by Beijing Earthquake Agency, the Tsinghua team proposes an operational quantitative evaluation method for community resilience. The assessment of earthquake safety and resilience is conducted to a typical community as a study case. A corresponding system platform is also developed. This research mainly includes: the evaluation system for community resilience; the resilience evaluation for the building system; the resilience evaluation for the transportation system; the resilience evaluation for the lifeline system; and the resilience evaluation for the non-physical system. A software platform for applying the resilience evaluation is developed. As shown in the evaluation results, the total resilience level of the community needs to be improved. Specifically, the transportation system has a higher capacity to meet demands compared with other systems. The resilience level of the building system is low, but its capacity to meet the demands is relatively stable at different seismic intensity levels. The resilience level of the lifeline system is high when the seismic intensity is small, but rather low when strong earthquake occurs, which means its capacity to meet demands is sensitive to the seismic intensity. Based on the above results, several measures for resilience enhancement are discussed with respect to the building system. The seismic safety and resilience evaluation are quantitatively performed in this study, taking the community with several subsystems as a study case. The results can be used as a demonstration to provide a reference for the popularization and application in Beijing in the future.

     

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