赵永翔, 杨 冰, 梁红琴. 一维机械强度参数概率模型的合理重构[J]. 工程力学, 2008, 25(1): 42-048.
引用本文: 赵永翔, 杨 冰, 梁红琴. 一维机械强度参数概率模型的合理重构[J]. 工程力学, 2008, 25(1): 42-048.
ZHAO Yong-xiang, YANG Bing, LIANG Hong-qin. REASONABLE RECONSTRUCTION OF ONE-DIMENSIONAL MECHANICAL STRENGTH PARAMETERS[J]. Engineering Mechanics, 2008, 25(1): 42-048.
Citation: ZHAO Yong-xiang, YANG Bing, LIANG Hong-qin. REASONABLE RECONSTRUCTION OF ONE-DIMENSIONAL MECHANICAL STRENGTH PARAMETERS[J]. Engineering Mechanics, 2008, 25(1): 42-048.

一维机械强度参数概率模型的合理重构

REASONABLE RECONSTRUCTION OF ONE-DIMENSIONAL MECHANICAL STRENGTH PARAMETERS

  • 摘要: 发展了一维机械强度参数概率模型的Monte Carlo模拟重构方法,以实现任意概率水平可靠性分析。方法用于解决参数仅以特定存活概率(P)值或特定P与置信度(C)值给出时,除特定值外无法实现其它概率水平可靠性分析的问题。为避免模拟样本过大使结果脱离实践、预测偏于危险,建议材料小试样7个―20个样本、结构试样至多10个、还原统计参数误差≤5%的模拟策略。发展了包含6种统计分布模型即正态、对数正态、三参数Weibull、两参数Weibull、极大值和极小值分布的重构方法与实施细节。10种工程材料疲劳极限的重构实践,验证了方法的有效性与可用性。

     

    Abstract: Monte-Carlo simulation method for the reconstruction of one-dimensional probabilistic mechanical strength parameters is developed to realize reliability analysis at arbitrary given probability levels. This method is valid to the case that the probabilistic parameters are given only in the form of special survival probabilities (Ps) or combined survival probability-confidences (P-Cs) and the reliability analysis can not be made except for the given Ps or P-Cs. To avoid the common simulations with numerous sampling sizes over possible practice to make a non-conservative evaluation, a simulation policy is newly suggested with from 7 to 20 sampling size for material small specimens and, at most, 10 for structural specimens, and 5% as the acceptable error for restoring original parameters. The details of the method are studied for the six possible distributions, i.e. normal, lognormal, three-parameter Weibull, two-parameter Weibull, extreme maximum value, and extreme minimum value ones. The reconstruction practice for the fatigue limits of 10 engineering materials has illustrated the availability and feasibility of the present method.

     

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