郑志, 王勇, 温卫平, 潘晓兰, 田澳楠. 基于机器学习的核电厂震后损伤评估及响应预测方法[J]. 工程力学. DOI: 10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2023.04.0250
引用本文: 郑志, 王勇, 温卫平, 潘晓兰, 田澳楠. 基于机器学习的核电厂震后损伤评估及响应预测方法[J]. 工程力学. DOI: 10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2023.04.0250
ZHENG Zhi, WANG Yong, WEN Wei-ping, PAN Xiao-lan, TIAN Ao-nan. A MACHINE LEARNING-BASED APPROACH TO POST-EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT AND RESPONSE PREDICTION FOR NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS[J]. Engineering Mechanics. DOI: 10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2023.04.0250
Citation: ZHENG Zhi, WANG Yong, WEN Wei-ping, PAN Xiao-lan, TIAN Ao-nan. A MACHINE LEARNING-BASED APPROACH TO POST-EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT AND RESPONSE PREDICTION FOR NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS[J]. Engineering Mechanics. DOI: 10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2023.04.0250

基于机器学习的核电厂震后损伤评估及响应预测方法

A MACHINE LEARNING-BASED APPROACH TO POST-EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT AND RESPONSE PREDICTION FOR NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS

  • 摘要: 为精确预测超设计基准地震下核电厂的抗震性能,确保核电厂的安全性和可靠性,提出一种新的机器学习框架用于建立核电厂多元地震动强度参数概率地震需求模型。使用32种地震动强度参数来表征地震的特征,并通过递归随机森林确定最佳地震动强度参数特征子集。采用机器学习算法,建立核电厂震后损伤状态及需求参数响应的预测模型。结果表明:CatBoost算法能够准确评估核电厂的损伤状态;GB和XGB算法在预测核电厂震后响应方面效果最佳。机器学习有潜力实现核电厂高精度损伤评估和响应预测,能够捕捉超设计基准地震下核电厂由于刚度退化引起的非弹性行为,拓展了核电厂震后风险评价体系。此外,通过沙普利加性解释方法(shapley additive explanations, SHAP)方法解释了预测模型的结果,研究了地震动强度参数随地震动强度提高的解释程度演变情况,研究成果可为实际核电厂抗震设计、震后加固和决策提供参考。

     

    Abstract: In order to accurately predict the seismic performance subjected to earthquakes beyond design basis and to ensure the safety and reliability of nuclear power plants, a novel machine learning framework is proposed to establish one probabilistic seismic demand model with multiple seismic intensity measures (IMs). 32 IMs are used to characterize earthquakes and a recursive random forest (RRF) method is used to determine the optimal subset of IMs. Machine learning algorithms are used to develop predictive models for the post-earthquake damage state and demand parameter response of nuclear power plants. The results show that the CatBoost algorithm could accurately assess the damage state, and that the GB and XGB algorithms are the most effective in predicting post-earthquake response of nuclear power plants. Machine learning has potential to achieve a high accuracy damage assessment and the response prediction for nuclear power plants, which can capture the inelastic behavior due to stiffness degradation under the effect beyond design basis earthquakes, and thus extends the power of the post-earthquake risk assessment system for nuclear power plants. Additionally, the results of the predictive model are interpreted by the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) method, and the evolution of the impact of the dominant IMs is investigated with increasing seismic intensity. The research outcome could provide references for seismic design, for post-earthquake reinforcement and policy decision of actual nuclear power plants.

     

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