基于结构可靠性方法的贝叶斯模型更新:氯盐侵蚀耐久性案例分析

BAYESIAN MODEL UPDATING BASED ON STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY METHOD: CASE STUDY FOR CHLORIDE-INDUCED DURABILITY ANALYSIS

  • 摘要: 贝叶斯模型更新是一种基于先验知识和最新观测数据,具有减少工程模型不确定性的计算能力的技术。通过将贝叶斯更新问题重新解释为结构可靠性问题,最新的BUS算法(即采用结构可靠性方法的贝叶斯更新)为快速和稳健的后验密度估计开辟了新的途径。为了实现氯盐侵蚀耐久性模型参数快速准确更新的目标,该文采用基于子集模拟的BUS方法。通过研究一个工程指导的复杂混凝土耐久性模型,证明了计算效率和精度。结果表明,模型参数的统计特性可以根据现场监测的信息成功地更新,并与简单拒绝采样估计的结果接近。

     

    Abstract: Bayesian model updating refers to a technique based on prior knowledge and up to date observations, which has the computational capability to reduce the uncertainties in engineering models. By reinterpreting Bayesian updating problem into a structural reliability problem, the state-of-the-art BUS algorithm (i.e., Bayesian updating with structural reliability methods) opens a new avenue for a fast and robust posterior density estimation. Towards the goal of fast and accurate parameter updating for a chloride-induced durability model, this paper adopts the subset simulation-based BUS approach. The computational efficiency and accuracy of the approach are demonstrated through investigating an engineering-guided sophisticated concrete durability model. Results showcase that the statistical properties of model parameters can be successfully updated by the information monitored in-situ and are close to the results estimated through simple rejection sampling.

     

/

返回文章
返回