考虑土体参数空间变异性边坡失稳风险定量评估

QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT OF SLOPE FAILURE CONSIDERING SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF SOIL PROPERTIES

  • 摘要: 边坡失稳风险定量评估是制定滑坡风险防治措施和建立滑坡风险预警体系的重要前提,然而目前方法不能有效地解决考虑土体参数二维空间变异性的边坡失稳风险定量评估问题,该文在蒙特卡洛模拟(MCS)和极限平衡分析框架下提出了一种有效的考虑参数二维空间变异性的边坡失稳风险定量评估方法,依次从土体参数二维空间变异性模拟、空间变异边坡稳定性分析、边坡代表性滑动面识别和边坡失稳风险定量分析这四个方面对提出方法进行了详细介绍。最后通过对3种工况下两层不排水饱和黏土边坡的失稳风险定量分析验证了提出方法的有效性。结果表明:该文提出方法具有以下优势:1)可以有效地识别空间变异边坡代表性滑动面,即边坡关键破坏模式;2)具有较高的边坡失稳风险评估计算效率,可为解决考虑参数二维空间变异性的低概率水平边坡失稳风险定量评估问题提供一个有效的工具;3)可以定量地计算每个关键破坏模式对边坡失效概率和失稳风险的贡献权重,从而可为制定有效的滑坡风险控制措施提供重要的参考依据。

     

    Abstract: Quantitative risk assessment of slope failure is an important prerequisite for formulating rational strategies for landslide risk mitigation and developing landslide risk-based warning system. However, the risk of slope failure in two-dimensional (2-D) spatially variable soils cannot be effectively evaluated. This paper aims to propose an efficient approach for quantitative risk assessment of slope failure considering 2-D spatial variability of soil properties in the framework of Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) and limit-equilibrium analysis of slope stability. The proposed approach comprising of 2-D spatial variation modeling of soil properties, stability analyses of spatially variable soil slopes, identification of representative slip surfaces and quantitative risk assessment of slope failure is described. The failure risks of a two-layered soil slope example under three cases are investigated to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The results indicate that the proposed approach has the following advantages:1) it can effectively identify the representative slip surfaces (i.e., key failure modes) of spatially variable slopes; 2) it can produce accurate risk of slope failure with much less computational efforts and provide an effective means for quantitative risk assessment of slope failure at low-probability levels in 2-D spatially variable soils; 3) it can quantify the contributions of each key failure mode to the probability and risk of slope failure, and hence provide an important reference for landslide risk mitigation measures.

     

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