机器学习地震动模型的认知不确定性量化及其在地震危险性分析中的应用

EPISTEMIC UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION OF MACHINE-LEARNING-BASED GROUND MOTION MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION IN SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS

  • 摘要: 机器学习技术已被广泛应用于建立地震动模型,但由于强震动数据的时空稀疏性,数据不足和模型选择将分别导致模型内和模型间认知不确定性。该文提出了基于Bootstrap和决策树蒙特卡洛模拟的认知不确定性量化方法,实现任意机器学习架构下地震动模型的模型内认知不确定性量化,并在概率地震危险性分析中同时引入传统模型和机器学习模型,对比研究不同认知不确定性影响下的地震危险性分析结果。研究表明:机器学习地震动模型的认知不确定性对给定地震动水准下地震动参数取值的均值和标准差均有较大影响,且较传统模型更显著。

     

    Abstract: Machine learning has been widely applied to establish ground motion models. However, due to the spatio-temporal sparsity of strong motion data, insufficient data and model selection will respectively lead to within- and between-model epistemic uncertainties. This study proposes an epistemic uncertainty quantification method based on Bootstrap and on logic tree Monte Carlo simulation, which enables the quantification of within-model epistemic uncertainty for any machine learning architecture. Traditional models and machine learning models are introduced simultaneously in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, and the results of seismic hazard analysis under the influence of different epistemic uncertainties are compared and studied. The research results show that the epistemic uncertainty of the machine-learning-based ground motion model has a significant impact on both the mean value and the standard deviation of the ground motion parameter values under a given ground motion level, and that this impact is more remarkable compared with that of traditional models.

     

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